MLB: is trading for a reliever beneficial?

By: Will Aimette

(Photo Credit: Newsweek)

In the 2025 MLB Trade Deadline, there were a TON of pitchers that were traded. The thing about this phenomenon? Almost all of the big pitching moves were relievers. I mean, elite closers like Mason Miller and Jhoan Duran were traded, setup men Griffin Jax and submariner Tylor Rogers were traded, and even former closers Ryan Helsley and David Bednar went to New York. That really is a ton of talent. But to get that talent, those teams gave up a lot too. So we’ll be answering the question many fans are currently asking: Are these moves really worth it?

Let’s start by looking at a couple of examples in the past few years and see how they’ve played out. Let's start with one of the more interesting moves made, Gregory Soto to the Orioles in 2024. This example is interesting because at the time the Orioles future looked amazing. With Adley Rutschman coming back from injury, Gunnar Henderson tearing it up, and their pitching staff including Corbin Burns, they were looking for one thing; relief pitching. Their biggest move was acquiring Gregory Soto, which was in theory a great move. And it turned out to be pretty good. Soto was still in his prime at 30, was a great setup man for Yennier Cano, and got Seranthony Dominguez too. So, what happened that they lost the division? Well injuries to pitching played a role, their offense stunk, and the bullpen. Soto had a 5.09 ERA and went 1-1 while not even pitching 20 innings for the O’s. Plus injuries to closer Yennier Cano didn't help the bullpen’s case. As for what the Orioles gave the Phillies, it was two minor leaguers who never found their way. So was it worth it? No, not really. Even though they basically gave up nothing, Soto’s WAR was actually negative, meaning he hurt the team. The two-time All Star now has been traded to the Mets, where he joins an elite bullpen. And that’s a whole different story. So to decide if the Mets getting Soto was worth it, we first have to evaluate what they gave up. They gave up Wellington Aracena, their 19th ranked prospect and a young pitcher with a high upside. For a guy who, in his best year had a 0.1 WAR with 11 losses, is way too much. So for Gregory Soto, I’d lean towards saying he was a bad trade acquisition for both the Orioles and the Mets, and a good acquisition for the sellers.

Now let’s take a look at someone who did have success dealt at that same deadline to the Padres; Jason Adam. Now we know how much Padres GM A.J. Preller loves trading away prospect talent. It’s a risky business, sometimes you give up too much (Leo Devries), sometimes it works out great, like in this case. The Padres, needing to catch up to the Dodgers, traded three prospects (who to this day are still in the minors), for high-leverage reliever Jason Adam. This guy was great, as it was a much needed key piece to bolster their bullpen, especially when the playoffs came around. On the Padres, he had a 1.01 ERA and went 3-0, leading them to a Wild Card spot. He now is still on the Padres and is 7-3 with a 1.75 ERA this year. Talk about a great deal. So, now that we’ve analyzed a great and bad trade from the 2024 deadline, we can start to recognize patterns based on the players dealt. Adam was slowly on the rise before he got dealt; he started his career with a -0.1 WAR and went up steadily around the 1.2-2.0 spot when the Padres got him at just the right time. However, Soto started his career off great, then had a slow decline as he got dealt to the Orioles. With these two outliers in mind, let’s take a look at our third and final example.

The Braves had some major bullpen moves in 2022. To start, let's analyze their first trade; acquiring Raisel Iglesias for Jesse Chavez and Tucker Davidson. We all know who won this trade, the Braves. Now Iglesias was struggling that season, with a 4.04 ERA. But if you look at his last 4 seasons, he was traditionally a 2.7-2.8 ERA guy. And that’s exactly why he was so cheap. Chavez was nearing the end of his career and got waived by the angels shortly after, and Davidson was a minor loss. However, Iglesias tore it up with a change of scenery, posting a 0.34 ERA with the Braves that year, taking over the closer role, and leading them to the NLCS. Furthermore, he then went back to a 2.75 and 1.7 ER over the next two years, proving he was one of the best closers in the league. So when you look closely at this transaction, it’s not too surprising how good it turned out to be. As for the Braves other move, they actually traded away Will Smith. Knowing they got an elite closer, they traded away their struggling closer for a veteran starter that provided mentorship towards their young staff including Spencer Strider. As for the Astros, Will Smith was terrible for them and he was waived shortly after.

So knowing these three examples, let’s analyze these current trades. Starting with the biggest of them all, Mason Miller to the Padres. I personally think this move was one of the worst all deadline. The Padres traded away a clear MVP candidate for… another reliever? This makes no sense. They have by far the best bullpen in all of baseball with THREE All Star relievers. Then they get Mason Miller? I can see why, but to a certain extent. Yeah, he's only 26, a flamethrower, and under four years of club control, but they didn’t need him. They did need MLB Pipeline No. 3 prospect Leo Devries to fill their hole in shortstop. Plus, Miller is a HUGE injury risk and has not had Tommy John Surgery. Their current closer, Robert Suarez wasn't dealt either, meaning they have four all star relievers. Now, the Padres defended this move by saying that Suarez is a free agent, but couldn’t you just resign him? If not, you STILL have the best bullpen in baseball if Suarez leaves. And I know people will try to argue with me, but I believe Suarez is a better closer than Miller. His lifetime ERA is less, his current ERA is less, and he has less injury risk. And Padres fans, don’t say it’s for money reasons because Devries will be barely making a million dollars in the majors.

Let’s look at another example in Jhoan Duran. Now the Phillies added the perfect pitcher for them. It couldn’t have been much better. They lost a pitching prospect in Mick Abel, MLB Pipeline No. 56, but come on. It’s not like they need another starter. Wheeler, Sanchez, Suarez, Luzardo, plus Andrew Painter coming up from the minors? Wow. Talk about a great staff. So for what the Phillies needed, Duran is a great candidate, and a little like Jason Adam, his career is rapidly going uphill.

Now let's look at another huge addition in Tylor Rogers. He is one of the best setup men in the MLB and takes the cake for MLB’s Best Submariner. But the Mets gave up a lot. They gave up Butto, who has been pretty good for them, but clearly Rogers would be better. But now you get into the prospects, and these guys are good. Drew Gilbert, a young outfielder with crazy power and a high ceiling, and Blade Tidwell, a solid pitcher in the minors that hasn’t found his footing in the majors yet. Both of these guys will be ready by next year. Talk about overpaying.

In conclusion, my take on buying relievers at the trade deadline is that in the past, it was acceptable, as they are a key piece especially for good teams in the playoffs. But over recent years, teams have been asking for more and more to the point where some teams will be willing to give up some of their best prospects for a guy to pitch about 20 innings plus playoffs. The main problem with reliever trades is that most pitchers traded are only under control for one year, meaning teams are overpaying. So while there is no definitive answer to this question, in most transactions it isn’t worth it, especially considering the names that have been traded for guys who pitch one inning every two games.