NBA Finals Prediction + Insights
By: Will Aimette
(Image Credit: News4SanAntonio.com)
After a crazy Conference Finals featuring a sweep of the Cavaliers in the East and one of the best series in recent memory in the West, the NBA Finals are set. And nobody could possibly write a script better than this. A city vs an alien. A rematch of the 1999 NBA Finals and this year’s NBA Cup Finals. It features a poised, established veteran guard versus one of the most exciting young talents this game has ever seen. We’re in for a treat this series, but great series often come with lots of exaggeration, confusion, and chaos. With that in mind, let me help you filter out the truth from the hype.
(Reminder: These are simply predictions, not definite outcomes!)
Series Final: Spurs in 6
The Spurs came into the season with one goal, and fellow guard Devin Vassell said it best in a postgame interview after Game 7: “Make the playoffs!” But clearly, this team had more juice left in them after they got here. Because after an incredible run (which includes beating the Wolves and the heavy favorites for the title, the Thunder), they just appear to be the better team. You may think that it’s fairly obvious when you have one of the best prospects in NBA history, but as good as Wemby is, he’s getting a TON of help. Their guards are just playing incredibly right now. Guys like Champagnie, Vassell, and Harper have the potential to drop 20-30 points in any given game. To have that sense of depth from your fourth through seventhth best players is very comforting if you’re their head coach, Mitch Johnson. Then you have the veteran and rookie guards in De’Aaron Fox and Stephon Castle. Although Fox suffered an ankle sprain that caused him to slump in the first half of the series, he’s the Spurs’ closer, and being the only starting veteran presence on the team, he stepped up when it mattered. But the Spurs (mostly Castle and Wemby) proved you don’t even need veterans to win. Every time Castle gets downhill, he scores. It’s kind of amazing how efficient he is in the paint. He moves with such power, gets to the rim on anybody, and will run you off the court. It’ll be fun to watch him scrap with Josh Hart; they both play with that same intensity and fire that drove these teams to the finals. Castle’s just a little more elegant in doing so, which is apparent on the statboard and the highlight reel. So if you match this team up with the Knicks without Wemby, I honestly think the series will still be close (The Knicks would probably pull it out, but it might go six or seven). But then you add in the 7’ 5” phenom. He changes the way people think about basketball. Jalen Brunson is out practicing the Hartenstein lob somewhere. KAT is working out near the perimeter at all times in practice, knowing The Alien looms in the paint. Mitchell Robinson is trying desperately to cure his pinky finger; not sure whether he’d rather be playing or avoiding the embarrassment. So when you just list the players on the Spurs and consider the explosiveness they possess, it’s hard to predict against them. Every one of these guys is a great one-on-one player, they all have incredible firepower and can beat their defender. It’s kind of amazing how they move the ball with such effectiveness. Then we get to their defensive runs. Sometimes, similar to that of a light switch, this team turns into the 1995-96 Bulls. They held OKC scoreless in five minutes twice this series, and held them scoreless in four minutes three times (One of which was a seven minute OKC scoring drought). It’s crazy to watch how their defensive runs only elevate their offensive play. And why is this? Because this team loves to run like no other, even the Knicks. They force turnovers on everybody; Vassell, Castle, Harper, and rookie Carter Bryant play best when playing hard and fast. Wemby has the reach of two guards on the court, and Keldon Johnson is one of the most physical players in the NBA. That’s my main problem with the Knicks in this series; their biggest strength will quickly become their weakness.
How the knicks could win
Win the games they’re supposed to win, then try to pull a sneaky win or two in San Antonio. We know the Spurs are favored to win. But the Knicks are actually favored in three of the seven games this series. Say New York can catch the Spurs off guard in either game one or two in San Antonio. Then they would technically be favored for the rest of the series; they would only need to win the games played in the Garden. So there is a path past the Spurs. After all, the Knicks are the hottest team in the NBA right now, they haven’t lost in over a month. But how will they compete in San Antonio and try to catch that win? How will they manage to dominate at home? As much as people think Jalen Brunson will be the savior of the Knicks, I think it’ll come down to the other two fellow Villanovians, Josh Hart and Mikal Bridges. If Hart can lock up Castle on defense and is able score just like he was scoring against Cleveland he’ll be the most valuable asset on the court for New York. Same goes with Bridges, he won’t be as effective in the paint, but we’ve all seen him with his smooth mid-range jumper and lockdown defense. If he’s as great as last year, the Knicks have a fighting chance. As for the Brunson, he might not be as great as people think he will be in this next series. His game is so focused on driving and scoring in the paint, he hides the ball so well against guards. It just won’t matter how hidden that ball is when there’s a guy 1’ 3” taller than you. I’m sure he’ll get his points, but Brunson just might not be the same player he’s been this playoffs. KAT is in a similar situation, now his only real value lies in drawing Wemby outside the paint to guard the three-point shot. That’ll allow guys like Hart, Brunson, or Bridges to score in the paint. Only problem is that Kat is an incredibly weak defender, he’ll foul out in no time and Wemby will dominate him in the paint. But Wemby will most likely be doing the same thing he did with OKC to the Knicks; he’ll play halfway between his man and the paint, a one-man zone. It’s effective since his standing reach is about ten feet tall (and that’s not even an exaggeration, as it’s listed as 9’ 10” - 9’ 11”). As for OG Anunoby, he’s just a wildcard, and I think that’s a good thing for the Knicks. He was great in game four against the Cavs, but he kind of disappeared throughout this year’s playoffs. If he can reappear at the right time, he’ll make an already strong New York team even better. So the only real chance the Knicks have at winning is by sneaking out one win at a time, trying to steal one in San Antonio, then by putting pressure on a young, inexperienced team at the Garden.
Matchups
Jalen Brunson vs. De’Aaron Fox
Advantage: Jalen Brunson. Although this one is tighter because Brunson will be less effective in the paint, Brunson is more of a team leader and can carry a team on his back through runs. Brunson can dish, he can drive, he can shoot, he’s clutch. Fox is shifty and quicker, he’ll pump fake you until the final buzzer. They both are similar players, they thrive by getting to the paint and that opens up threes and midrange shots later in the game. Their basketball IQ’s are incredibly high, I just think Brunson has that x-factor, that extra level that Fox can’t go to. The only thing that could hold Brunson back in this matchup would be his defensive limitations, but I can’t see that outweighing what he does best.
Stephon Castle vs. Josh Hart
Advantage: . Hart will have his work cut out for him, as Castle is not afraid of drawing contact and will drive you crazy as a defender. Two of the more physical players on the court, but the simple truth is like Brunson, Castle has a level that Hart can’t go to scoring-wise. But there is an argument for Hart. Hart’s strong, he fights for steals and boards, he’s a team leader. What he lacks in talent he makes up for in pure grit. And as athletically gifted as Castle is, he has ball control issues and might be a little too energetic at times. He’s like a little puppy that can’t control his excitement (if the puppy was 6’ 6” and one of the best basketball players on the planet). The only problem? Castle has that same gritty personality, he just doesn’t lack as much talent. But this will most likely be the matchup to watch throughout the series, it might even get a little chippy between these two.
Mikal Bridges vs. Dylan Harper
Advantage: Harper. This was definitely a tough one, and may be controversial. Dylan Harper had a great year, and after adding a few moster clutch games in the playoffs, he looks like one of the best players on the court. His defense is overpowering, his offense unstoppable. He’s a great shooter, he has crazy good body control, and he’s a basketball genius. Look at the guy’s highlights! He’s clearly much more mature than the ripe age of 20. Yes, Bridges has very similar traits, and slightly better stats, but Bridges is the third or fourth option on the Knicks. Dylan Harper is the sixth or seventh option for the Spurs, he’s just incredibly efficient in the minutes he plays. He’s shooting over 50% in the playoffs, and every time he’s gotten the chance he’s responded. Now I’m not saying that the statboard will make Harper look like the better player at the end of the game, I’m saying he plays better basketball when he’s on the court. The Spurs just have so many weapons right now that they don’t really need Harper to play 40 minutes a game. What a luxury.
Devin Vassell vs. OG Anunoby
Advantage: Anunoby. He’s a stronger player, better rebounder, and better scorer. The way these two are playing as of right now? Give me Vassell. He’s a great shooter and better defender, but I think Anunoby’s been quiet because he hasn’t really gotten a chance to be loud. Especially after the injury, the Knicks have been playing him delicately. In the finals, they’re letting him loose. However, Vassell plays best against guys bigger than him, and his defense is something to watch. He’s a big part of the team, just not as big as Anunoby is to the Knicks.
Victor Wembanyama vs. Karl Anthony Towns
Advantage: Wemby’s the best player on the court, hands down. I know some New Yorkers will try to argue in Brunson’s case, but you have to be out of your mind to think Brunson’s better. But this isn’t about Brunson, it’s about KAT. And KAT has his work cut out for him. I don’t know how they’re gonna handle Wemby, whether it’s with Robinson or KAT, but whoever’s on him better pray. That’s really all you can do. As for their offensive abilities, Robinson might be the most limited player on the court due to his free throw shooting, so KAT has to start. Maybe New York goes with double bigs to preserve KAT’s offensive ability, especially at the three point line. But really, there’s such a big advantage given to Wemby; he’s the best defensive player in the league and a top-three offensive player in the league. And I can guarantee you he’ll play over 40 minutes per game. Whether KAT or Robinson can somewhat contain this guy while having a decent offensive performance will determine the outcome of this series. It’s obvious Wemby’s gonna win this matchup, the question now asks by how much?
Bench (Keldon Johnson, Julian Champagnie, Carter Bryant, Luke Kornet) vs. (Deuce McBride, Landry Shamet, Mitchell Robinson)
Advantage: Before watching the playoffs, I would tell you the Knicks have the better bench. After watching almost every quarter of every game from both these teams over the last month and a half, I’ll now tell you the exact opposite. Champagne is a great shooter, he’s coming off a prime Steph Curry-esque Game 7 performance. Keldon Johnson, the sixth man of the year, averaged 13.4 points and 5 rebounds per game in the regular season, those are better stats than Josh Hart! Carter Bryant is the wildcard in this group. He’s great defensively, but has his slip-ups every once in a while. When he gets to the rim, he sure doesn’t give up his chances, as he’ll become a valuable asset in the future with his strong drives. But him and Kornet might even have an immediate impact in this series by guarding Brunson and KAT while giving their star players rest. As for the Knicks, McBride is a great shooter, he provides a spark off the bench and electrifies the crowd. That said, Champagnie is better. Same with Shamet, he has been much better recently, gaining a ton of confidence from the Cavs series. But he’s still not even close to the level of Keldon Johnson. Robinson, as described above, is limited offensively and although he gets his boards, he might not be able to get as many against Wemby. But he’ll be needed, as KAT might be on the bench for a while due to foul trouble.
