Why MLB Managers are Incorrectly Setting Their Lineup
By: Will Aimette
(Image Credit: CNN News)
For as long as baseball has existed, managers set their lineup with a certain formula. Traditionally, the leadoff hitter often gets on base and has speed. The second hitter similarly has a high OBP (On Base Percentage), but has less speed and more power. The third hitter, often the best hitter in a lineup, hits for both average and power. Lastly, the fourth (or cleanup) hitter has the most power on the team, yet these hitters frequently strike out. But has anyone actually challenged this strategy? And I think that’s exactly the problem with baseball. Everyone is so scared of looking bad that they never bother differing from the rest of the league. When this strategy was made in the 1920’s, baseball was a different game. They didn’t have access to improved statistics like ERA+ (Earned Run Average compared to the rest of the league), WAR (Wins Above Replacement), Runs Created, and OPS. And these stats reveal the problem with managers setting the lineup like this. These lineups are based on a simulation of what MIGHT happen in an ideal world. So what happens when the leadoff hitter doesn’t get on base? Even taking into account the best leadoff hitters ever, there’s less than a 50% chance they do. What if the second hitter grounds into a double play, or what if they strike out? You see, that’s exactly the problem with this lineup. It’s just based on what someone believed could happen. So instead of this luck-based order, teams should organize their lineup based on OPS and baserunning metrics. If the best players come up to bat the most, teams will statistically score more runs. Only five teams in the majors have their best hitter batting leadoff (most notably the Phillies and power-hitter Kyle Schwarber). Do you know how many more runs the Red Sox would produce if they batted Willson Contreras (who bats fourth) at the leadoff spot? Using the ratios of At-Bats and Runs Created each hitter has, Willson creates 0.215 runs per AB, while their total leadoff hitters have created 0.145 runs per AB. The leadoff hitters have 446 combined AB’s, while Contreras has 371 AB’s. Using this ratio over a 162-game season, Contreras would create 8 more runs. According to Fangraphs Sabermetrics, 8 more runs equals roughly 0.76 more wins. While that seems negligible, it actually can boost a team into the playoffs when used with the entire lineup. However, the Red Sox don’t put him there because they believe he’s more valuable in driving in runs. What some managers don’t realize is that mathematically, it is likely they would score more runs by placing their best hitter at the top of the order, rather than relying on a luck-based simulation. And it doesn’t just stop with their best hitter. Teams should organize their entire lineup this way, from best to worst hitter. When done correctly, Fangraphs estimates teams will win 1.2 - 1.5 more games per season using this strategy. And every year since 2020, there has been at least one team whose playoff seeding was decided by one game or less, most recently headlined by the Mets in 2025. So if managers ordered their lineups more analytically, statistics say history would’ve been different.
(Statistics Used From: Fangraphs, StatCast, BaseballReference, ESPN)
